Will Donald Trump say “Chair”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Chair” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 17, 2026 (100%), most recently on May 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Chair
- Probability
- 57% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…RNC Chairman Joe Gruters, who's doing a fantastic job. And Florida GOP Chair Evan Power. Thank you. RNC National Committee woman Kathleen King. Thank you,…
…got to come up. You're so good. Come on up. Iowa GOP chair Jeff Kaufman. Jeff, thank you. Great job. Your son is fantastic. My…
…He's done a fantastic job along with FTC Chairman, Task Force Vice Chair Andrew Ferguson. Great job, Andrew, proud of you. Administrator of the Centers…
Nearly 30 countries have joined the board, which I am honored to chair, and we're thankful to many of those member nations for contributing billions…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Chair |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 24, 2026 | Chair | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| May 17, 2026 | Chair | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Chair”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Chair” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 17, 2026 (100%), most recently on May 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Chair” next time?
- 57%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Chair’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/chair (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=chair · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP