Will Donald Trump say “Midterm Election”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Midterm Election” at any of the 5 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jan 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 0/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Midterm Election
- Probability
- 43% · n=5
- Settled
- 0/5 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…get all of them. I want to because I've never seen a midterm election with this kind of action. I mean, when you look outside…
…folks say that they're going to vote for congressional Republicans come the midterm elections. Again, that's the 99% that Trump got against Kla Harris. Look…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
They're waiting to see how I do in the midterm election. What they don't realize is that I'm not running. I did that already and…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Midterm Election |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Midterm Election | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Midterm Election | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jan 27, 2026 | Midterm Election | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Midterm Election | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Midterm Election”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Midterm Election” at any of the 5 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jan 13, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Midterm Election” next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Midterm Election’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/midterm-election (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=midterm%20election · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP