# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · keynote 2026-01-21 · 23 words · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-wef-address-on-january-21 · as_of 2026-10-27T19:16:06Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2026-01-21 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 keynote transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-wef-address-on-january-21 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Hell 5+ times	hell#5	5	10	6	0.6	YYnnnnYYYY	1	1	0.61	hist	yes
Wife	wife	1	2	2	1	YY	1	1	0.54	hist	yes
Ass	ass	1	6	3	0.5	nnYYnY	1	0	0.52	hist	no
Green New Scam	green new scam	1	9	5	0.56	nYnYYnYYn	1	1	0.51	hist	yes
American Dream	american dream	1	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.5	hist	yes
Woke / DEI	dei|woke	1	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.5	hist	no
Globalist / Global	global|globalist	1	0	0			1	0	0.5	hist	yes
Affordability	affordability	1	2	1	0.5	nY	1	1	0.49	hist	no
Expert / Genius	expert|genius	1	0	0			1	1	0.48	hist	yes
Resolve / Hammer	hammer|resolve	1	0	0			1	1	0.47	hist	no
Friend of Mine	friend of mine	1	8	3	0.38	nYnnnYYn	1	1	0.46	hist	yes
NATO	nato	1	39	17	0.44	YnnYnYYnnn	1	1	0.45	hist	yes
Denmark / Norway	denmark|norway	1	0	0			1	1	0.43	hist	yes
Intel / Nvidia	intel|nvidia	1	0	0			1	1	0.42	hist	no
Boeing	boeing	1	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	1	0	0.41	hist	no
Maduro / Khamenei	khamenei|maduro	1	0	0			1	1	0.38	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	236	20	0.08	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.2	hist	yes
Depreciation	depreciation	1	0	0			1	0	0.48	prior	yes
Golden Age of America	golden age of america	1	0	0			1	0	0.48	prior	no
Make Iran Great Again	make iran great again	1	0	0			1	0	0.48	prior	no
Million / Billion / Trillion 25+ times	billion|million|trillion#25	25	0	0			1	1	0.48	prior	yes
Mortgage	mortgage	1	0	0			1	0	0.48	prior	yes
Nuclear / Iran 4+ times	iran|nuclear#4	4	0	0			1	1	0.48	prior	yes