Will Donald Trump say “Nuclear / Iran” 4+ times?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nuclear / Iran” 4+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jan 21, 2026.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (4+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Nuclear / Iran 4+ times
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 3 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…death of the world's top sponsor of terrorism, the supreme leader of Iran, who killed many people. You know, they killed in the last nine…
…if you'd like proof of that, just ask Venezuela or just ask Iran. You know, Iran had 159 ships. Now they're all at the bottom…
…doing very well. You have no idea how well we're doing with Iran. Iran is finished. Iran is finished. But think of it. But I…
…used the name Elan Omar, but rather it's an entirely different name. Iran Nur say Almi slightly different than Ilan that's and I don't know…
…been pretty happy with Russia, that they have not gotten involved with Iran. We've -- we've taken Iran down to levels that they've never seen…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | Nuclear / Iran 4+ times |  Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Nuclear / Iran 4+ times”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nuclear / Iran” 4+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jan 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Nuclear / Iran 4+ times” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Nuclear / Iran 4+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/iran-or-nuclear-4plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=iran%20%2F%20nuclear%20%284%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP