Will Donald Trump say “Expert / Genius”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Donald Trump said “Expert / Genius” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jan 21, 2026.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Expert / Genius
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 3 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…in surplus and the mayors are getting reelected they're making they're like geniuses because data centers are so I say let them come in like…
so I had the doors removed. I had them redone by total experts. And we painted them instead the White House instead of greened. You…
…I don't think so. Joanie, I don't know. You would You're an expert. Are you allowed to do that, Joanie? When asked whether or not…
…-- you know, as you're looking at this and you're reading what experts have largely written, it sounds so sinister. It's a terrible situation. And…
…have stopped. This is revolutionary, just like the fraud task force. It would supercharge our fraud experts, and I think it is a brilliant move.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | Expert / Genius |  Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Expert / Genius”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, Donald Trump said “Expert / Genius” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Jan 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Expert / Genius” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Expert / Genius’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/expert-or-genius (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=expert%20%2F%20genius · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP