White House press briefing, Feb 26, 2026
Polymarket What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
Markets
25 words · 7 settled yes- Polymarket: role: press secretary Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Energy | Yes | 47%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Historic | Yes | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Stand | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | Yes | 35%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Fake news | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 26%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 63%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 61%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 56%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 55%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Affordability / Affordable | No | 55%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 51%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Kash / Kristi | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Left Wing | No | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Baby | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 40%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 36%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Hockey | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Joe Biden | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| State of the Union | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Voter ID / VoterID | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | No | 35%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 34%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 24%n=12 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-karoline-leavitt-say-during-the-next-white-house-press-briefing-131 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP