Lemonade Stand: Episode, May 27, 2026
Polymarket What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (May 27)
Markets
22 words · 15 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patreon | Yes | 68%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Anthropic / Claude | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Left | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sweden / Swedish | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Energy | Yes | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Blue | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Canada / Canadian | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Green | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Basketball | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Blockade | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Korea / Korean | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Scam | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Xi | No | 47%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Balanced | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Red | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ghost | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Magic | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gold | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-on-the-next-lemonade-stand-podcast-may-27 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP