Lemonade Stand: Episode, Jun 10, 2026
Polymarket What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (June 10)
Markets
22 words · 15 settled yes- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 70%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Anthropic / Claude | Yes | 65%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 65%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Left | Yes | 65%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Right | Yes | 65%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Blue | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Energy | Yes | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Friend | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Government | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Love | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Red | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gold | Yes | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Basketball | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Equilibrium | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rent | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Scam | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Gavin / Newsom | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Magic | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-be-said-on-the-next-lemonade-stand-podcast-june-10-20260604160436888 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP