Will “Gavin / Newsom” be said on Lemonade Stand next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Gavin / Newsom” was not said on Lemonade Stand in any of the 2 episodes with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 2, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 3.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Lemonade Stand
Gavin / Newsom
- Probability
- 39% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: anyone
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
And uh Gavin did hit us up this week and he'll be rotating me out. throwing me out and we're dropping you and it's just…
…apparently he's under a lot of pressure from both karen bass and gavin newsom and but also a lot of people like the directors guild…
…for 2028, which we brought up a couple times, has historically been Gavin Newsom, at least in the entire time we've done this show, with…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2026 | Gavin / Newsom |  Polymarket | No |
| May 6, 2026 | Gavin / Newsom | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often is “Gavin / Newsom” said on Lemonade Stand?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Gavin / Newsom” was not said on Lemonade Stand in any of the 2 episodes with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 6, 2026.
- What is the probability “Gavin / Newsom” is said on Lemonade Stand next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “Lemonade Stand: ‘Gavin / Newsom’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts/lemonade-stand/words/gavin-or-newsom (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=lemonade-stand&word=gavin%20%2F%20newsom · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=lemonade-stand&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP