What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “Monetary Policy” next time?

63%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Kevin Warsh say “Monetary Policy”?

Name: Kevin Warsh: “Monetary Policy” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Monetary Policy” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Apr 21, 2026.

Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 hearings have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 01:56 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Kevin Warsh

Monetary Policy

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 3 transcripts: said in 3 of 3

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (3 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Kevin WarshspeakerFOMC press conference, September 16, 2026 · Sep 16, 2026In transcript

Last month in Wyoming, I expressed my commitment to a monetary policy discipline, not to a decision. I defined the standard for action. We must…

Kevin WarshspeakerFOMC press conference, July 29, 2026 · Jul 29, 2026In transcript

…on them because they are under the bright streetlight? Finally, we discussed monetary policy tools and strategies for achieving stable prices. If, as the Fed…

Kevin WarshspeakerFOMC press conference, June 17, 2026 · Jun 17, 2026In transcript

…performance. In this business, they all add up to one thing: getting monetary policy right—or as near to it as we can do. That is…

What will Kevin Warsh say during his fireside chat with International Monetary Fund? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Kevin Warsh say during his Jackson Hole remarks? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Kevin Warsh say during the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Kevin Warsh say during his ECB discussion? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Kevin Warsh say during his Swearing-In? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Kevin Warsh say during his Senate Confirmation Hearing? · settled yes

Open the appearance

We don’t have this transcript yet.

Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Apr 21, 2026	Monetary Policy	Polymarket	Yes

Questions

How often does Kevin Warsh say “Monetary Policy”?: As of Oct 25, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Monetary Policy” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Apr 21, 2026.
What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “Monetary Policy” next time?: 63%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘Monetary Policy’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/monetary-policy (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=monetary%20policy · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP