# JD Vance (jd-vance) · interview 2026-10-17 · 20 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26OCT17 · as_of 2026-10-24T02:06:57Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-10-17 · tn/th last 5 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-09-03 (under 2 interview transcripts) · same on every row: v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26OCT17 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of CBS Things That Matter: A Town Hall With Vice President JD Vance originally scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	res
Democrat	democrat	1	52	41	0.79	YYYYYYYYYY	5	4	0.71	yes
Medicare / Medicaid	medicaid|medicare	1	11	8	0.73	nYnYYYnYYY	5	2	0.57	no
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	1	46	30	0.65	nnYYYYYYnn	5	3	0.57	yes
Biden	biden	1	69	48	0.7	YYYYYYYYYn	5	4	0.56	yes
Inflation	inflation	1	26	17	0.65	YnnnYYYnYn	5	2	0.55	no
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	17	11	0.65	YYnnYYnYnY	5	2	0.55	yes
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	1	14	9	0.64	YYYYYYYnnn	5	4	0.54	yes
Election	election	1	40	24	0.6	YYYYYYYYYY	5	1	0.54	yes
Fraud	fraud	1	48	28	0.58	YYYYnYYnYY	5	3	0.53	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	50	27	0.54	YYYYnnYnYY	5	3	0.49	no
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	1	29	15	0.52	nYYnYYYYYY	5	3	0.47	yes
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	1	4	2	0.5	YYnn	5	0	0.47	no
Healthcare	healthcare	1	38	18	0.47	YYYYnYYnnn	5	3	0.43	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	34	13	0.38	nnnnnnnYnn	5	3	0.41	yes
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	23	10	0.43	YnYnnnnnnn	5	2	0.34	yes
Tariff	tariff	1	38	12	0.32	nYnnnnnnYn	5	1	0.29	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	36	7	0.19	nnYnnnnnnn	5	1	0.25	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	10	2	0.2	nYnnnYnnnn	5	2	0.21	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	56	9	0.16	nnnYnnnnnn	5	3	0.18	yes
America First	america first	1	48	7	0.15	nnnYnnnnYn	5	0	0.18	no