# JD Vance (jd-vance) · interview 2026-10-01 · 19 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26OCT01B · as_of 2026-10-26T15:47:13Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-10-01 · tn/th last 5 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-09-03 (under 2 interview transcripts) · same on every row: v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26OCT01B ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Fox News: Hannity originally scheduled for October 1, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	res
Democrat	democrat	1	47	36	0.77	YYYYYYYYYY	5	4	0.67	yes
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	1	13	9	0.69	nYYYYYYYnn	5	4	0.6	no
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	1	41	27	0.66	nYYYYnnYYY	5	3	0.56	yes
Biden	biden	1	64	44	0.69	YYYYYYYYYY	5	4	0.53	yes
Medicare / Medicaid	medicaid|medicare	1	10	7	0.7	YnYnYYYnYY	5	2	0.52	yes
Inflation	inflation	1	21	14	0.67	YYYnnYnnnY	5	2	0.52	yes
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	16	10	0.62	nYYnnYYnYn	5	2	0.51	yes
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	34	16	0.47	YYYnYnnYYn	5	4	0.5	no
Fraud	fraud	1	43	24	0.56	YYnYYYYYYn	5	3	0.48	yes
Election	election	1	35	19	0.54	YnYYYYYYYY	5	1	0.47	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	45	24	0.53	YnYYnYYYYn	5	3	0.46	yes
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	18	10	0.56	YYnYnYnYnn	5	2	0.45	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	29	12	0.41	nnYYnnnnnn	5	3	0.45	no
Healthcare	healthcare	1	33	16	0.48	nYYnYYYYYn	5	3	0.44	yes
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	1	24	10	0.42	nnYYnnYYnY	5	3	0.35	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	35	7	0.2	nnnYnnnnnn	5	1	0.27	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	9	2	0.22	nYnnnYnnn	5	2	0.23	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	51	9	0.18	YnYnnnnnYn	5	3	0.21	no
America First	america first	1	43	6	0.14	nYnnnnnnYn	5	0	0.17	no