# JD Vance (jd-vance) · interview 2026-06-08 · 18 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26JUN08 · as_of 2026-10-25T05:47:06Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-06-08 · tn/th last 3 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-05-19 (under 2 interview transcripts) · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26JUN08 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Fox News: Jesse Watters Primetime , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	res
Biden	biden	38	28	0.74	YYYYYYYYnn	3	3	0.58	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	21	15	0.71	nYYYYYnYYn	3	2	0.57	yes
Democrat	democrat	27	20	0.74	nYnYYYYYYn	3	3	0.56	yes
California	california	12	8	0.67	YYnnnYYYnY	3	1	0.56	yes
ICE / DHS	dhs|ice	0	0			3	1	0.52	no
Fraud	fraud	22	14	0.64	nYYYYnYYYn	3	2	0.5	yes
Somali / Somalia / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	16	10	0.62	YnYYnYYYnn	3	1	0.46	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	20	11	0.55	nYnYYYYYYn	3	2	0.44	no
Nuclear	nuclear	12	6	0.5	nYYYYnnnYY	3	2	0.44	yes
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	5	3	0.6	nYYnY	3	2	0.43	yes
Election	election	14	7	0.5	YnYnYnYnYn	3	0	0.43	yes
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	20	8	0.4	YYnnnnYnYn	3	2	0.42	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	2	1	0.5	nY	3	1	0.41	no
Healthcare	healthcare	20	8	0.4	YnYnnnYnYY	3	2	0.37	no
Corrupt / Corruption	corrupt|corruption	1	0	0	n	3	0	0.29	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	6	1	0.17	nnnYnn	3	1	0.23	no
America First	america first	22	3	0.14	nnnnnnnnnn	3	0	0.15	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	18	2	0.11	nnnnnnnnnn	3	0	0.14	yes