Will JD Vance say “ICE / Border”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “ICE / Border” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 18, 2026.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Last said
- Feb 17, 2026
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
ICE / Border
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 2 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…because of it. We said, if you got control of the southern border, we would see a substantial reduction in the number of people who…
…this is the headline. I'm just going to read it, "Outrage after ICE officer kills US citizen in Minneapolis." Well, that's one way to put…
…and beaten, and in many cases, killed over our United States southern border. You also look at the inhumane treatment at the hands of some…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2026 | ICE / Border |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “ICE / Border”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “ICE / Border” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Feb 18, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “ICE / Border” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘ICE / Border’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/border-or-ice (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=border%20%2F%20ice · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP