# JD Vance (jd-vance) · interview 2026-02-18 · 20 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26FEB18 · as_of 2026-10-24T07:58:31Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-02-18 · tn/th last 2 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-01-08 (under 2 interview transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26FEB18 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of The Story with Martha MacCallum, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	16	14	0.88	YYYYnYYYYY	2	2	0.75	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	3	3	1	YYY	2	1	0.63	hist	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	3	3	1	YYY	2	1	0.62	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	9	7	0.78	YnYYYYYYn	2	2	0.61	hist	yes
Inflation	inflation	9	7	0.78	YYnYYYYYn	2	0	0.61	hist	yes
ICE / Border	border|ice	0	0			2	1	0.61	hist	yes
Investment / Invested	invested|investment	4	3	0.75	YnYY	2	0	0.57	hist	yes
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	9	5	0.56	YYnYnYnYn	2	0	0.54	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	8	5	0.62	YYYnYnYn	2	2	0.49	hist	yes
Healthcare	healthcare	11	4	0.36	nnYnYYnnnY	2	1	0.39	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	14	5	0.36	YnYYnnnnnY	2	0	0.37	hist	no
China	china	12	4	0.33	nnnnYnnnYn	2	0	0.32	hist	yes
Big Beautiful Bill	big beautiful bill	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	2	0	0.32	hist	no
Epstein	epstein	4	0	0	nnnn	2	0	0.25	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	14	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	2	0	0.14	hist	no
Gerrymandering / Gerrymander	gerrymander|gerrymandering	0	0			2	0	0.43	prior	no
ID / Identification	id|identification	0	0			2	0	0.43	prior	no
Marco / Rubio	marco|rubio	0	0			2	1	0.43	prior	yes
Olympic / Olympics	olympic	0	0			2	0	0.43	prior	yes
Protest / Protester	protest|protester	0	0			2	1	0.43	prior	no