Will JD Vance say “Viktor / Orbán” 4+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Viktor / Orbán” 4+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Apr 7, 2026.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (4+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Viktor / Orbán 4+ times
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 0 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2026 | Viktor / Orbán 4+ times |  Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Viktor / Orbán 4+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Viktor / Orbán” 4+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Apr 7, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Viktor / Orbán 4+ times” next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Viktor / Orbán 4+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/orban-or-viktor-4plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=orban%20%2F%20viktor%20%284%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP