Will JD Vance say “ICE / Border Patrol”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “ICE / Border Patrol” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Dec 22, 2025.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
ICE / Border Patrol
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…this is the headline. I'm just going to read it, "Outrage after ICE officer kills US citizen in Minneapolis." Well, that's one way to put…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2025 | ICE / Border Patrol |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “ICE / Border Patrol”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “ICE / Border Patrol” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Dec 22, 2025.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “ICE / Border Patrol” next time?
- 50%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘ICE / Border Patrol’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/border-patrol-or-ice (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=border%20patrol%20%2F%20ice · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP