# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2025-12-01 (settled) · 25 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-25DEC01 · as_of 2026-10-24T02:58:15Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-12-01 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAYMONTH-25DEC01 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	22	14	0.64	YYYYnYYYYY	0.74	hist	0	0	yes	1
Crooked Hillary	crooked hillary	2	2	1	YY	0.61	hist	0	0	no	1
Pelosi	pelosi	2	2	1	YY	0.6	hist	0	0	yes	1
Autism	autism	4	2	0.5	YYnn	0.59	hist	0	0	no	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	11	6	0.55	nnYYnYYnnY	0.57	hist	0	0	yes	1
Moscow	moscow	4	2	0.5	nYYn	0.54	hist	0	0	yes	1
Gulf of America	gulf of america	2	2	1	YY	0.53	hist	0	0	yes	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	22	13	0.59	YnnnYYYYYY	0.52	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	20	10	0.5	YYnnnnnYnY	0.52	hist	0	0	yes	1
Slopadopoulos	slopadopoulo	11	4	0.36	nYnnYYnYnn	0.52	hist	0	0	no	1
Hunter	hunter	5	3	0.6	YnYnY	0.51	hist	0	0	yes	1
Trump Derangement Syndrome	trump derangement syndrome	3	1	0.33	nnY	0.49	hist	0	0	yes	1
Third Term	third term	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.48	hist	0	0	no	1
Fat shot / Ozempic	fat shot|ozempic	8	3	0.38	YnnYnYnn	0.48	hist	0	0	yes	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	30	14	0.47	YnYYnnYYYn	0.41	hist	0	0	yes	1
UFC	ufc	7	3	0.43	nYYnnnY	0.39	hist	0	0	yes	1
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	12	5	0.42	nnnnnnYYYY	0.36	hist	0	0	yes	1
Taylor Swift	taylor swift	6	0	0	nnnnnn	0.36	hist	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	195	18	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	0.35	hist	0	0	yes	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	11	1	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	0.28	hist	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	41	7	0.17	YYYnnnnnnn	0.25	hist	0	0	yes	1
Whack Job	whack job	1	0	0	n	0.48	prior	0	0	no	1
3i Atlas	3i atla	0	0			0.48	prior	0	0	no	1
GameStop	gamestop	0	0			0.48	prior	0	0	no	1
Rocket Man	rocket man	0	0			0.48	prior	0	0	no	1