# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2026-03-31 · 16 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAR31 · as_of 2026-10-25T09:47:43Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-31 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 remarks transcripts) · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist, res void · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAR31 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Chicago Opening Night, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p
Crime / Criminal	crime|criminal	4	4	1	YYYY	1	1	0.63
Trump	trump	51	31	0.61	YYYYnYYYYY	1	1	0.62
Democrat	democrat	112	77	0.69	YnYnYYYnYY	1	1	0.6
Biden	biden	218	151	0.69	nYYYYYnYnY	1	1	0.57
Iran	iran	85	56	0.66	nYnYYYYnnY	1	1	0.57
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	18	12	0.67	YYnnYYnYYY	1	1	0.55
Deal / Settle	deal|settle	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.52
NATO	nato	56	29	0.52	nYYYYnYnnY	1	1	0.51
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	21	13	0.62	YYYnYnYnYY	1	1	0.5
ICE / TSA	ice|tsa	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.47
Movie Star	movie star	2	1	0.5	Yn	1	0	0.44
Marco / Rubio	marco|rubio	17	8	0.47	nYYnYYYnnn	1	0	0.38
Supreme Court	supreme court	36	13	0.36	YYYYnnnYnn	1	1	0.37
Kennedy	kennedy	6	3	0.5	YYYnnn	1	0	0.34
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	80	29	0.36	YnnYYYYYnn	1	1	0.33
Cuba	cuba	14	5	0.36	nYnnYYnnnY	1	0	0.33