# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · keynote 2025-11-18 · 23 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25NOV18 · as_of 2026-10-26T08:12:12Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-18 · tn/th blank: no keynote transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25NOV18 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Remarks at McDonald's Impact Summit, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	104	80	0.77	nYYnYYYYnn	0.67	hist	yes
China	china	65	50	0.77	YnYYnYnnnn	0.65	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	37	25	0.68	YYYYYnnYnY	0.63	hist	yes
Trillion	trillion	22	15	0.68	YnYYnYYYnn	0.59	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	63	47	0.75	YnYYYYnnnn	0.58	hist	yes
Election	election	34	20	0.59	nnYYnYnnnn	0.54	hist	yes
Economy	economy	12	8	0.67	nnnYYnYYYY	0.53	hist	yes
Investment	investment	33	16	0.48	YnYYnnYnnn	0.52	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	67	34	0.51	nnnYnnnnnn	0.51	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	20	11	0.55	nnYnYYnnnn	0.47	hist	no
Fry / Fries	fry	1	1	1	Y	0.46	hist	yes
Big Mac	big mac	0	0			0.46	hist	yes
Quarter Pounder	quarter pounder	0	0			0.46	hist	yes
Trump	trump	22	10	0.45	nnYYnYYYnn	0.43	hist	yes
Beef	beef	2	1	0.5	nY	0.42	hist	no
Inflation	inflation	15	7	0.47	YnnYYnnnYn	0.41	hist	yes
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	49	19	0.39	YYnnYnnnnn	0.38	hist	no
Stimulus	stimulus	1	0	0	n	0.37	hist	no
Epstein	epstein	29	3	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	0.25	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	184	18	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	0.24	hist	no
Tallow	tallow	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Thanksgiving	thanksgiving	0	0			0.41	prior	yes
Walmart	walmart	0	0			0.41	prior	yes