# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · speech 2025-06-21 · 24 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25JUN21 · as_of 2026-10-24T18:50:37Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-06-21 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25JUN21 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of Address to the Nation Originally scheduled for 10 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Make America Great Again	make america great again	0	0			0.62	hist	no
Peace	peace	4	3	0.75	YnYY	0.53	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	14	10	0.71	YnYYYYYYYn	0.53	hist	yes
War	war	1	1	1	Y	0.51	hist	no
Russia	russia	17	12	0.71	YYYYYYnnnY	0.51	hist	no
Dog	dog	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.5	hist	no
Success/Successful	success|successful	0	0			0.5	hist	yes
Sanction	sanction	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.47	hist	no
Negotiation	negotiation	1	0	0	n	0.44	hist	no
Gabbard	gabbard	0	0			0.42	hist	no
Israel	israel	30	16	0.53	nnnnnYnYnn	0.41	hist	yes
Iran	iran	12	5	0.42	nYYnYnnYnn	0.41	hist	yes
Ceasefire	ceasefire	8	1	0.12	nnnnYnnn	0.35	hist	no
2 week	2 week	0	0			0.46	prior	no
America/American	america|american	0	0			0.46	prior	yes
Ayatollah	ayatollah	0	0			0.46	prior	no
Bunker Buster	bunker buster	0	0			0.46	prior	no
Fordow	fordow	0	0			0.46	prior	yes
Intelligence	intelligence	0	0			0.46	prior	no
Isfahan	isfahan	0	0			0.46	prior	yes
Khamenei	khamenei	0	0			0.46	prior	no
Natanz	natanz	0	0			0.46	prior	yes
Surrender	surrender	0	0			0.46	prior	no
Victory	victory	0	0			0.46	prior	no