Will Donald Trump say “Surrender”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Surrender” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 21, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Surrender
- Probability
- 47% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…years, and it is not one that we will ever, ever, ever surrender. It was right here in New York City that George Washington ordered…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Surrender”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Surrender” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jun 21, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Surrender” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Surrender’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/surrender (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=surrender · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP