# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-12-16 · 18 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC16 · as_of 2026-10-24T19:23:42Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-12-16 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K, res no · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC16 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Christmas Reception on December 15th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src
Trillion	trillion	39	30	0.77	YnYYYYYYYY	0.76	hist
Tariff	tariff	88	62	0.7	nnnnnYYYYn	0.69	hist
Biden	biden	128	96	0.75	YnnnnYYnYn	0.67	hist
Democrat	democrat	53	36	0.68	YYnnnnnYYY	0.63	hist
Hanukkah	hanukkah	3	3	1	YYY	0.6	hist
Hottest	hottest	95	53	0.56	YYYYnYYYnn	0.59	hist
China	china	85	59	0.69	YnnnnYYnnn	0.57	hist
Border	border	78	47	0.6	YYYnYnYYYY	0.54	hist
Election	election	49	29	0.59	YnnYYYnYnn	0.52	hist
Bondi	bondi	0	0			0.5	hist
Crime	crime	9	4	0.44	YnnYnnYYn	0.48	hist
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	4	2	0.5	nYYn	0.39	hist
Inflation	inflation	30	13	0.43	nnYnYnnnYY	0.37	hist
Santa	santa	1	0	0	n	0.35	hist
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	31	11	0.35	nnnnnnnnYn	0.32	hist
Immigrant / Immigration	immigrant|immigration	3	0	0	nnn	0.25	hist
Maduro	maduro	24	6	0.25	nnnnnnnYnn	0.16	hist
Rob Reiner	rob reiner	0	0			0.42	prior