# Pete Hegseth (pete-hegseth) · presser 2026-03-10 · 20 words · K k:KXMENTION-HEGS26MAR10 · as_of 2026-10-24T20:20:03Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-10 · tn/th blank: no presser transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXMENTION-HEGS26MAR10 ({word} = w of K rows): If Pete Hegseth says {word} as part of Operation Fury Press Conference on March 10th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Nuclear	nuclear	1	5	4	0.8	YnYYY	0.65	hist	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	2	2	1	YY	0.63	hist	yes
F-15 / F-15E	f 15|f 15e	1	1	1	1	Y	0.55	hist	no
Drone	drone	1	4	2	0.5	nnYY	0.54	hist	yes
America First	america first	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.45	hist	no
Civilian	civilian	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.45	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.45	hist	no
Iraq	iraq	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.45	hist	yes
Oil	oil	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.45	hist	yes
Submarine	submarine	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.45	hist	no
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.45	hist	yes
Fake News	fake new	1	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.43	hist	no
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	1	1	0	0	n	0.33	hist	yes
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	2	0	0	nn	0.31	hist	no
Ayatollah / Khamenei	ayatollah|khamenei	1	2	0	0	nn	0.27	hist	no
Constitution / Constitutional	constitution|constitutional	1	2	0	0	nn	0.27	hist	no
Hezbollah	hezbollah	1	2	0	0	nn	0.27	hist	yes
Hormuz	hormuz	1	2	0	0	nn	0.27	hist	yes
Midnight Hammer	midnight hammer	1	2	0	0	nn	0.27	hist	no
Saudi	saudi	1	0	0			0.43	prior	no