# Pete Hegseth (pete-hegseth) · briefing 2026-04-08 · 30 words · K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26APR08 · P p:what-will-hegseth-say-during-press-conference-on-april-8 · as_of 2026-10-25T03:31:51Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-04-08 · tn/th blank: no briefing transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26APR08 ({word} = w of K rows): If Pete Hegseth says {word} as part of Pentagon Press Briefing originally scheduled for April 8th, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-hegseth-say-during-press-conference-on-april-8 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pete Hegseth says the listed term during the press conference scheduled for April 8, 2026 at 8AM ET.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	KP	6	6	1	YYYYYY	0.56	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	K	8	7	0.88	YnYYYYYY	0.54	hist	yes
Drone	drone	1	K	8	6	0.75	nnYYYYYY	0.51	hist	yes
America First	america first	1	K	6	4	0.67	YnnYYY	0.43	hist	yes
AI / Cyber	ai|cyber	1	P	0	0			0.43	hist	no
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	K	6	3	0.5	nnnYYY	0.39	hist	yes
Hormuz	hormuz	1	K	6	3	0.5	nnYYnY	0.36	hist	yes
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	K	6	3	0.5	YnYnYn	0.35	hist	yes
Russia	russia	1	K	4	2	0.5	nYnY	0.34	hist	no
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	1	K	5	2	0.4	nYnYn	0.31	hist	yes
Civilian / School	civilian|school	1	K	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.3	hist	no
Hamas / Hezbollah	hama|hezbollah	1	K	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.3	hist	no
Oil	oil	1	K	6	2	0.33	YnYnnn	0.27	hist	yes
Fake News	fake new	1	K	7	2	0.29	nYnnYnn	0.27	hist	no
CIA	cia	1	KP	0	0			0.25	hist	no
Rescue / Rescued	rescue|rescued	1	K	0	0			0.25	hist	yes
Ayatollah / Khamenei	ayatollah|khamenei	1	K	6	1	0.17	nnnnnY	0.23	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	1	K	6	1	0.17	Ynnnnn	0.2	hist	no
Ally	ally	1	P	0	0			0.34	prior	yes
Asset	asset	1	P	0	0			0.34	prior	no
Fire	fire	1	P	0	0			0.34	prior	yes
Game	game	1	P	0	0			0.34	prior	no
God is Good	god is good	1	P	0	0			0.34	prior	yes
Leak / Leaker	leak|leaker	1	P	0	0			0.34	prior	no
Lethal / Lethality	lethal|lethality	1	P	0	0			0.34	prior	no
Little	little	1	P	0	0			0.34	prior	yes
Objective	objective	1	P	0	0			0.34	prior	yes
SCIF	scif	1	P	0	0			0.34	prior	no
This President	this president	1	P	0	0			0.34	prior	no
Uniform	uniform	1	P	0	0			0.34	prior	no