# Pete Hegseth (pete-hegseth) · briefing 2026-04-07 · 17 words · K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26APR07 · as_of 2026-10-27T03:14:40Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-04-07 · tn/th blank: no briefing transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K, res void · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26APR07 ({word} = w of K rows): If Pete Hegseth says {word} as part of Pentagon Press Briefing on April 7th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	6	6	1	YYYYYY	0.71	hist
Nuclear	nuclear	1	8	7	0.88	YnYYYYYY	0.68	hist
Drone	drone	1	8	6	0.75	nnYYYYYY	0.64	hist
America First	america first	1	6	4	0.67	YnnYYY	0.55	hist
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	6	3	0.5	nnnYYY	0.5	hist
Hormuz	hormuz	1	6	3	0.5	nnYYnY	0.47	hist
Russia	russia	1	4	2	0.5	nYnY	0.46	hist
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	6	3	0.5	YnYnYn	0.45	hist
Civilian / School	civilian|school	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.43	hist
Hamas / Hezbollah	hama|hezbollah	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.43	hist
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	1	5	2	0.4	nYnYn	0.41	hist
Oil	oil	1	6	2	0.33	YnYnnn	0.36	hist
Fake News	fake new	1	7	2	0.29	nYnnYnn	0.35	hist
Ayatollah / Khamenei	ayatollah|khamenei	1	6	1	0.17	nnnnnY	0.31	hist
Democrat	democrat	1	6	1	0.17	Ynnnnn	0.28	hist
CIA	cia	1	0	0			0.42	prior
Rescue / Rescued	rescue|rescued	1	0	0			0.42	prior