Will Scott Bessent say “Recession”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Recession” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (20%), most recently on Jan 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 press briefings we have transcripts for (Apr 29, 2025 – May 28, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Scott Bessent
Recession
- Probability
- 41% · n=5
- Settled
- 1/5 (20%)
- Last 3 press briefings
- said in 1 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…deficit in history -- in history when we were not in a recession or not at war, 6.7 percent. We brought that down to about…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Scott Bessent say “Recession”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Recession” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (20%), most recently on Jan 20, 2026.
- What is the probability Scott Bessent says “Recession” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Scott Bessent: ‘Recession’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/scott-bessent/words/recession (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=scott-bessent&word=recession · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=scott-bessent&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP