Will Scott Bessent say “Fed”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Fed” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (75%), most recently on Jan 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 61% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 3 press briefings we have transcripts for (Apr 29, 2025 – May 28, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

61%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only
Last 10
3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=scott-bessent&word=fed

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Where it was said

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Scott Bessent

Fed

Probability
61% · n=4
Settled
3/4 (75%)
Last 3 press briefings
said in 2 of 3

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Scott BessentspeakerSecretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent Briefs Members of the Media, May 28, 2026 · May 28, 2026 · 1:38In transcript

…Real GDP has risen 2.6 percent over the past four quarters. Atlanta Fed's GDP Now predicts 3.8 percent for this quarter, second quarter. The US…

Scott BessentspeakerPress Secretary Karoline Leavitt, Scott Bessent, and Kelly Loeffler Brief Members of the Media · Apr 15, 2026 · 18:28In transcript

…we have laid out in terms of Kevin Warsh becoming the next Fed chair, he's going to have the hearing on the 21st of this…

The PressreporterPress Secretary Karoline Leavitt and Scott Bessent Brief Members of the Media, Apr. 29, 2025 · Apr 29, 2025 · 9:18In transcript

…manufacturing, we've seen some pretty grisly surveys this month from the Philly Fed, which saw the biggest drop since May of 2020, and the Dallas…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will Scott Bessent say during Meet the Press? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during Special Report with Bret Baier? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during RNC Midterm Convention? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during his press conference? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during the Faith & Freedom Coalition's Conference? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during CNBC: Squawk Box? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during his Committee on Ways & Means hearing? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during the Treasury Budget Hearing? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during the Reagan National Economic Forum? · not listed

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What will Scott Bessent say during the White House Press Briefing? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 4 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Jan 22, 2026FedKalshiYes
Jan 21, 2026FedKalshiYes
Dec 8, 2025FedKalshiNo
Dec 4, 2025FedKalshiYes

Questions

How often does Scott Bessent say “Fed”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Fed” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (75%), most recently on Jan 21, 2026.
What is the probability Scott Bessent says “Fed” next time?
61%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Scott Bessent: ‘Fed’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/scott-bessent/words/fed (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=scott-bessent&word=fed · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=scott-bessent&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP