SpaceX (SPCX): FY26 Q2 earnings call, Aug 4, 2026
On its Aug 4, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q2), SpaceX said 18 of the 29 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 28 of 29 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
29 words · 18 settled yes · our count agreed on 28 of 29- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starship | Yes | 24 | 24 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Grok | Yes | 18 | 18 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Launch 10+ times | Yes | 16 | 16 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon / Musk 3+ times | Yes | 14 | 14 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Moon | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Moon 3+ times | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cursor | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Data Center | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Data Center 5+ times | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nvidia | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Anthropic / OpenAI | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| IPO | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Colossus | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Starbase | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Artemis | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Starmind | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tesla | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| T-Mobile | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Combine / Combining | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fuel 3+ times | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ISS / International Space Station | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mars | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Merge / Merger | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MRV / Mission Robotic Vehicle | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NASA | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unlock / Lock Up | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Weather | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
3 matches for “IPO”; 3 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…faster than revenue. Importantly, we significantly strengthened the balance sheet through our IPO and inaugural investment-grade bond offering. The combination of our global launch leadership,…
…but revenue, have moved up from 2031 to 2030. Prior to the IPO, the financial projections we had were reaching $1 trillion in revenue in…
…generates what, I think the breakdown's probably similar to what we shared pre-IPO. It's just happening a year sooner. I will go back to what…
Where the listed words were said
…making great progress developing a fully and rapidly reusable reliable rocket with Starship. We're connecting millions more people globally across 170 markets with fast, reliable…
…can actually service that bandwidth. Regarding AI, we're making rapid progress on Grok, because Grok 4.5 was a huge improvement. We have Grok 4.6 coming…
…competitors to copy us. We do nothing to slow them down. We launch competing satellite constellations at fair prices, the same price we charge everyone.
…call. I'm Andrea Williams, Head of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Elon, Gwyn, and Bret, we are speaking to you from our facility in…
…future but will come faster than you think, using robots on the Moon to scale up manufacturing on the Moon, which I know it sounds…
…on the Moon, and you have solar and radiator production on the Moon, you can I know this sounds totally nuts, but you can probably…
…online will obviously further benefit the development of Grok, as will our Cursor acquisition, which should close quite soon. I think we're through almost all…
…we use for rockets and satellites and applying that to scaling terrestrial data centers. We're finding that even a small amount of what we've learned…
…making gigantic rockets reach orbit on a regular basis reliably to terrestrial data centers, this is like, frankly, the New York Yankees going in and…
…to think about it. Going forward, we've decided to build exclusively on Nvidia, because we think the Vera Rubin architecture is the best architecture. We…
…as well as those for other leading companies such as Google and Anthropic. In terms of our own Grok models, the enterprise feedback on rollout…
…entered into cloud services agreements providing access to compute capacity at our Colossus and Colossus two sites. The initial ramp from these agreements contributed $1.6…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/spacex:2026-08-04:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=spacex:2026-08-04:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP