Will SpaceX say “China / Chinese”?
SpaceX said “China / Chinese” 1 time on its Oct 20, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on each of its last 2 calls: 2, 1 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, SpaceX said “China / Chinese” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 4, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 80% (n=3, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
- Market
- 46¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
SpaceX
China / Chinese
- Probability
- 80% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
- Last calls
- said in 2 of 2
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…that is almost 90% of all mass to orbit of Earth, where China is about, I think, roughly 6%, and the rest of the world…
Counts: company speakers + operator
2 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A).
…is incredibly good at hardware. In fact, I'd say probably outside of China, SpaceX and Tesla are the two best companies on Earth at hardware.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | China / Chinese |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 4, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
Questions
- How many times did SpaceX say “China / Chinese” on its last earnings call?
- SpaceX said “China / Chinese” 1 time on its Oct 20, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on each of its last 2 calls: 2, 1 times.
- How often does SpaceX say “China / Chinese”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, SpaceX said “China / Chinese” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 4, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026.
- What is the probability SpaceX says “China / Chinese” next time?
- 80%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “SpaceX: ‘China / Chinese’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/SPCX/words/china-or-chinese (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=spacex&word=china%20%2F%20chinese · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=spacex&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP