What is the probability SpaceX says “Unlock / Lock Up” next time?

14%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.

Will SpaceX say “Unlock / Lock Up”?

Name: SpaceX: “Unlock / Lock Up” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

SpaceX did not say “Unlock / Lock Up” on its Oct 20, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), or on any of its last 2 calls. As of Oct 24, 2026, SpaceX did not say “Unlock / Lock Up” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 4, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 14% (n=2, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.

14%from settlement history blended with transcripts · n=2counts: company speakers + operator

Last 10: 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: company speakers + operator

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 17:08 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

SpaceX

Unlock / Lock Up

Probability: 14% · n=2
Settled: 0/2 (0%)
Last calls: said in 0 of 2

Next listing counts: company speakers + operator

FY26 Q3 earnings call, Oct 20, 2026 · not said

Open the appearance

FY26 Q2 earnings call, Aug 4, 2026 · not said

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 2 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result	Our count
Oct 20, 2026	Unlock / Lock Up	Kalshi	No	0
Aug 4, 2026	Unlock / Lock Up	Kalshi	No	0

Questions

How many times did SpaceX say “Unlock / Lock Up” on its last earnings call?: SpaceX did not say “Unlock / Lock Up” on its Oct 20, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), or on any of its last 2 calls.
How often does SpaceX say “Unlock / Lock Up”?: As of Oct 24, 2026, SpaceX did not say “Unlock / Lock Up” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 4, 2026.
What is the probability SpaceX says “Unlock / Lock Up” next time?: 14%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.

Cite parrot.markets, “SpaceX: ‘Unlock / Lock Up’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/SPCX/words/lock-up-or-unlock (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=spacex&word=lock%20up%20%2F%20unlock · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=spacex&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP