Will SpaceX say “Moon”?

SpaceX said “Moon” 1 time on its Oct 20, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on each of its last 2 calls: 8, 1 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, SpaceX said “Moon” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 4, 2026 (67%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 86% (n=3, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.

86%from settlement history blended with transcripts · n=3Next: Earnings call, Jan 26, 2027 · counts: company speakers + operator
Last 10
2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
company speakers + operator
Market
66¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=spacex&word=moon

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

SpaceX

Moon

Probability
86% · n=3
Settled
2/3 (67%)
Last calls
said in 2 of 2

Next listing counts: company speakers + operator

FY26 Q3 earnings call, Oct 20, 2026 · said 1 time (counts)

Open the appearance

Counts: company speakers + operator

1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).

Gwynne ShotwellcompanypreparedIn transcript

…build the space economy in orbit and on other planets and the moon. As Elon said, Starship Flight 14 was a major technical milestone, and…

FY26 Q2 earnings call, Aug 4, 2026 · said 8 times (counts)

Open the appearance

Counts: company speakers + operator

8 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 8 in Q&A).

Elon MuskcompanyqaIn transcript

…future but will come faster than you think, using robots on the Moon to scale up manufacturing on the Moon, which I know it sounds…

Elon MuskcompanyqaIn transcript

…on the Moon, and you have solar and radiator production on the Moon, you can I know this sounds totally nuts, but you can probably…

Every match in the transcript

Every settled listing

newest first · 3 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 20, 2026MoonKalshiYes1
Sep 10, 2026MoonKalshiNo–
Aug 4, 2026MoonKalshiYes8

Questions

How many times did SpaceX say “Moon” on its last earnings call?
SpaceX said “Moon” 1 time on its Oct 20, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and on each of its last 2 calls: 8, 1 times.
How often does SpaceX say “Moon”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, SpaceX said “Moon” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 4, 2026 (67%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026.
What is the probability SpaceX says “Moon” next time?
86%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.

Cite parrot.markets, “SpaceX: ‘Moon’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/SPCX/words/moon (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=spacex&word=moon · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=spacex&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP