What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Teacher” next time?

37%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Teacher”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Teacher” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Teacher” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 25, 2026 (43%), most recently on Mar 10, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Oct 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

37%from settlement history only · n=7counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 3/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes no no no
Streak: not said the last 3 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 14:45 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Teacher

Probability: 37% · n=7
Settled: 3/7 (43%)
Last 8 press conferences: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Kamar Samuels, Chancellor, New York City Public SchoolsotherMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

…and the ability to learn and play alongside each other. We need teachers to be able to do that. Those are all things AI cannot…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.