Tesla (TSLA): FY25 Q2 earnings call, Jul 23, 2025
On its Jul 23, 2025 earnings call (FY25 Q2), Tesla said 13 of the 23 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 23 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
23 words · 13 settled yes · our count agreed on 23 of 23- Kalshi: company speakers
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optimus | Yes | 23 | 25 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Full Self-Driving / FSD | Yes | 18 | 23 | ✓ | 97%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 93%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 85%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Robotaxi | Yes | 8 | 14 | ✓ | 91%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| xAI | Yes | 7 | 8 | ✓ | 63%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Dojo | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 57%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Autonomous | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 94%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Waymo | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 68%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Powerwall | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 69%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Robotics | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 44%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Subscription | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 32%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Grok4 | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Cybertruck | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 85%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| 4680 | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 78%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Gigafactory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 68%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 68%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Cluster | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 51%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Spacex | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 50%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 49%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Supercharger / Super Charger / Super-charger | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 20%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Epstein | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
25 matches for “Optimus”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…batteries. But that's again a big deal. It's a really big deal. Optimus, so we're evolving the Optimus design and really getting Optimus to the…
…electronics, control electronics, sensors, the mechanical elements. We also got to train Optimus to use its limb sensors with a neural net. But we'll be…
…that apply to optimizing AI inference on the car, apply it to Optimus because they're both really robots in different forms. And Tesla, it is…
…a very big deal in the future. It is now. So with Optimus 3, which is really the right design, it's like it doesn't have…
…and then scale production next year. We're going to try to scale Optimus production as fast as it's humanly possible to do, so we'll try…
Where the listed words were said
…Thank you, guys. The next question is, what specific factory tasks is Optimus currently performing? And what is the expected time line for scaling production…
…worth noting that we do not actually yet have approval for supervised FSD in Europe. So our sales in Europe, we think, will improve significantly…
A couple of weeks or so. And we're getting the regulatory permission to launch in the Bay Area, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and a number of…
…existing hardware to happen. Energy is growing really well despite headwinds from tariffs and supply chain challenges. The Megapack is expanding capacity quickly, and we…
…we've had a very exciting quarter. We were able to successfully launch robotaxi, so providing our first drives with no one in the driver seat…
…by far. And I have a lot of insight into this with xAI. xAI is -- Grok is the smartest AI overall, but it's --…
Great. Next question is, can you give an update on Dojo? And could xAI be a customer for Dojo?
…bill and tariffs. However, the investments that we have made for AI, robotics and our lead in energy sets us up for a bright future.…
…last year is we did bring down the pricing and we've made subscription much more affordable. So we have seen a 25% increase since that…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tesla:2025-07-23:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tesla:2025-07-23:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP