Will Tesla say “4680”?
Tesla did not say “4680” on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3); it said it on 3 of its last 8 calls: 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, Tesla did not say “4680” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 23, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 34% (n=1, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- company speakers
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Tesla
4680
- Probability
- 34% · n=1
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last calls
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…Berlin, we started launching a Model Y battery pack with our in-house 4680 cells a few months ago, and that is ramping up nicely, adding…
…what extent that might come from ramping up your own LFP and 4680 battery cell manufacturing? Or is this something that you'd expect to resolve…
Not counted under the usual rule (company speakers + operator); this word was not listed here.
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…have been creative in trying to resolve the situation by now putting 4,680 cells in nonstructural packs, we continue to iterate improving things from here…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…the US, both with vendors and what Bonnie mentioned earlier with the 4680 program. And we're also working on moving the upstream supply chain for…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2025 | 4680 |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
Questions
- How many times did Tesla say “4680” on its last earnings call?
- Tesla did not say “4680” on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3); it said it on 3 of its last 8 calls: 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0 times.
- How often does Tesla say “4680”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Tesla did not say “4680” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 23, 2025.
- What is the probability Tesla says “4680” next time?
- 34%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers.
Cite parrot.markets, “Tesla: ‘4680’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/TSLA/words/4680 (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tesla&word=4680 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tesla&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP