Tesla (TSLA): FY25 Q1 earnings call, Apr 22, 2025
On its Apr 22, 2025 earnings call (FY25 Q1), Tesla said 18 of the 31 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 31 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
31 words · 18 settled yes · our count agreed on 31 of 31- Kalshi: company speakers
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Yes | 28 | 29 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| China 3+ times | Yes | 19 | 29 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Autonomous | Yes | 18 | 19 | ✓ | 90%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Robotaxi | Yes | 11 | 12 | ✓ | 79%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | 10 | 17 | ✓ | 94%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Tariff 5+ times | Yes | 10 | 29 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 9 | 14 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Full Self-Driving / FSD | Yes | 7 | 11 | ✓ | 96%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| DOGE / Department of Government Efficiency | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 25%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| DOGE | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Demand | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 91%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 89%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Cybertruck | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 79%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Megapack | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 80%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Gigafactory | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 49%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Protest | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 15%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Rare Earth | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Roadster | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 63%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Solar | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 58%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Inflation Reduction Act / IRA | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 53%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mars | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Semi Truck / Semi-truck | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Battery day | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 25%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| 4680 battery cell | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 25%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Charging network | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 19%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Gigacast / Gigacasting | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 19%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Price elasticity | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 19%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
19 matches for “Autonomous”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…the company. The future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale, large volume, vast numbers of autonomous humanoid robots. So…
…of next year. We expect to have these -- be selling fully autonomous rides in June in Austin, as we've been saying for now several…
…then any Tesla which could be an S3 extra wide that is autonomous is a robotic taxi or robotaxi. It's very confusing. So the vast…
…when will -- the Tesla's because the Tesla's that will be fully autonomous in June in Austin are probably Model Ys. So, that is currently…
…end up, which is the vast majority of the Tesla fleet being autonomous. So, that's why I feel confident in predicting large scale autonomy around…
Where the listed words were said
…But we do have localized supply chains in North America, Europe, and China. So that puts us in a stronger position than any of our…
…with the cars. I saw one guy take a Tesla on -- autonomous on a narrow road across like a mountain. And I'm like, very…
…of all, autonomy. The team and I are laser focused on bringing robotaxi to Austin in June. Unsupervised autonomy will first be solved for the…
Great. Thank you very much, Elon. Before we move on, Vaibhav has some opening remarks as well.
…through a recent update, and add to that, if it wants an FSD, you have a personal chauffeur which can take you almost anywhere under…
…for the time that I've been spending in government with the Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE. I think the work that we're doing there…
…environment. Because, in order for our grid to work properly with the demands from AI and all this, you need some more stability. This is…
…make it work anywhere in China, likewise in Europe, limited only by regulatory approvals. So, this is the advantage of having a generalized solution using…
It's happening and people don't know it’s just happening upstairs all the long lines while we're still building the Model Ys and Cybertrucks every day.
…see with respect to energy, energy business is doing very well. The Megapack is -- enables utility companies to output far more total energy than…
…right. And then we've got the catheter refinery in Austin next to Gigafactory. We've got to figure out what to do about the anode. This…
…and everyone else. So, I think this is critical work. Now, the protests that you'll see out there, they're very organized, they're paid for. They're…
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