Will Tesla say “China” 3+ times?
Tesla said “China” 2 times on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and 3+ times on 5 of its last 8 calls: 10, 28, 2, 3, 10, 3, 0, 2 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, Tesla said “China” 3+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Apr 22, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=1, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Tesla
China 3+
- Probability
- 55% · n=1
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last calls
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
2 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…are working very diligently to try and get broader FSD approval in China. It is hard but for certain cars, we have been able to…
We are actively working with the regulators in China because I do not know if you saw this, but we have released our safety report…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
3 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…how the regulators go about it. Additionally, we've also received approvals in China. The broader approval is still not there, but we're working with the…
…have outsized impacts as most of the battery cells are procured from China. Our order backlog for this business is robust, and we're doing our…
Counts: company speakers + operator (not listed here; the usual rule)
10 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 10 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…that by far, the biggest competition for humanoid robots will be from China. China is incredibly good at scaling manufacturing. Actually quite good at AI…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2025 | China 3+ |  Polymarket | Yes | 19 |
Questions
- How many times did Tesla say “China” on its last earnings call?
- Tesla said “China” 2 times on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3), and 3+ times on 5 of its last 8 calls: 10, 28, 2, 3, 10, 3, 0, 2 times.
- How often does Tesla say “China 3+”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Tesla said “China” 3+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Apr 22, 2025.
- What is the probability Tesla says “China 3+” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Tesla: ‘China 3+’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/TSLA/words/china-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=tesla&word=china%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=tesla&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP