Sam Altman: Episode, Dec 9, 2025
Kalshi What will Sam Altman say during The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon?
Markets
15 words · 1 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Google / Gemini | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Compute | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| IP / Intellectual Property | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sora | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Regulation | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| 5.2 / GPT-5.2 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Code Red | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Valuation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AGI | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nuclear | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nvidia | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | No | 18%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Privacy | No | 18%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Meme | No | 16%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXALTMANMENTION-25DEC09 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP