Will Sam Altman say “Elon / Musk”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Sam Altman did not say “Elon / Musk” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 10, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 10% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (1 episode, 1 keynote; Jul 22, 2025 – Oct 10, 2025), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Sam Altman
Elon / Musk
- Probability
- 10% · n=3
- Settled
- 0/3 (0%)
- Last 2 transcripts
- said in 0 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 2026 | Elon / Musk |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Elon / Musk |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Elon / Musk | Polymarket | No | 0 |
Questions
- How often does Sam Altman say “Elon / Musk”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Sam Altman did not say “Elon / Musk” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 10, 2025.
- What is the probability Sam Altman says “Elon / Musk” next time?
- 10%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Sam Altman: ‘Elon / Musk’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/sam-altman/words/elon-or-musk (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=sam-altman&word=elon%20%2F%20musk · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=sam-altman&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP