Will Sam Altman say “Regulation”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Sam Altman said “Regulation” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 22, 2025 (33%), most recently on Jul 22, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 15% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (1 episode, 1 keynote; Jul 22, 2025 – Oct 10, 2025), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 62¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Sam Altman
Regulation
- Probability
- 15% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 2 transcripts
- said in 1 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted; 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…developed world. I think the biggest challenge will be risk tolerance and regulation for very good reasons but about how quickly do you want to…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | Regulation |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Regulation | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Regulation | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often does Sam Altman say “Regulation”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Sam Altman said “Regulation” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 22, 2025 (33%), most recently on Jul 22, 2025.
- What is the probability Sam Altman says “Regulation” next time?
- 15%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Sam Altman: ‘Regulation’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/sam-altman/words/regulation (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=sam-altman&word=regulation · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=sam-altman&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP