Will Sam Altman say “Polymarket / Bet”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Sam Altman said “Polymarket / Bet” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Dec 8, 2025.
Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (1 episode, 1 keynote; Jul 22, 2025 – Oct 10, 2025), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Sam Altman
Polymarket / Bet
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 2 transcripts
- said in 1 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 episode, 1 keynote); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…all gonna be so different every few days. Man, I'm watching this Polymarket ticket go by ticker go by, and it's so tempting to, like,…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2025 | Polymarket / Bet |  Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Sam Altman say “Polymarket / Bet”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Sam Altman said “Polymarket / Bet” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Dec 8, 2025.
- What is the probability Sam Altman says “Polymarket / Bet” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Sam Altman: ‘Polymarket / Bet’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/sam-altman/words/bet-or-polymarket (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=sam-altman&word=bet%20%2F%20polymarket · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=sam-altman&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP