Will Sam Altman say “Risk”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Sam Altman said “Risk” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 22, 2025.
Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (1 episode, 1 keynote; Jul 22, 2025 – Oct 10, 2025), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Sam Altman
Risk
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 2 transcripts
- said in 1 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
7 counted; 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
…technology. we've got to put some new controls on it. But the risk of us not doing this um if we if we don't adopt…
…and rollout has worked better than I thought. There there clearly are risks to mitigate. We talked about hallucinations. A new one on the horizon…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2025 | Risk |  Kalshi | Yes | 7 |
Questions
- How often does Sam Altman say “Risk”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Sam Altman said “Risk” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 22, 2025.
- What is the probability Sam Altman says “Risk” next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Sam Altman: ‘Risk’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/sam-altman/words/risk (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=sam-altman&word=risk · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=sam-altman&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP