Will Sam Altman say “Fraud”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Sam Altman said “Fraud” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 22, 2025.
Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (1 episode, 1 keynote; Jul 22, 2025 – Oct 10, 2025), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Sam Altman
Fraud
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 2 transcripts
- said in 1 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
3 counted; 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
…Um, I am very nervous that we have an impending significant impending fraud crisis because of this. Um, we have tried I think other people…
…teaching people how to authenticate in a world like that, how to think about, you know, the the fraud impact. This is a huge deal.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2025 | Fraud |  Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
Questions
- How often does Sam Altman say “Fraud”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Sam Altman said “Fraud” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 22, 2025.
- What is the probability Sam Altman says “Fraud” next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Sam Altman: ‘Fraud’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/sam-altman/words/fraud (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=sam-altman&word=fraud · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=sam-altman&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP