Will Sam Altman say “Elon / Grok”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Sam Altman did not say “Elon / Grok” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 29, 2026.
Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (1 episode, 1 keynote; Jul 22, 2025 – Oct 10, 2025), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
–too little history for a probability (n=1)
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 32¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Sam Altman
Elon / Grok
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 2 transcripts
- said in 0 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Elon / Grok |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Sam Altman say “Elon / Grok”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Sam Altman did not say “Elon / Grok” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 29, 2026.
- What is the probability Sam Altman says “Elon / Grok” next time?
- 21%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Sam Altman: ‘Elon / Grok’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/sam-altman/words/elon-or-grok (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=sam-altman&word=elon%20%2F%20grok · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=sam-altman&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP