What is the probability Sam Altman says “API / AGI” next time?

11%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Sam Altman say “API / AGI”?

Name: Sam Altman: “API / AGI” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, Sam Altman did not say “API / AGI” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Dec 8, 2025.

Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (1 episode, 1 keynote; Jul 22, 2025 – Oct 10, 2025), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
Streak: not said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 03:56 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Sam Altman

API / AGI

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 0/1 (0%)
Last 2 transcripts: said in 2 of 2

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (1 episode, 1 keynote); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Sam AltmanguestTBPN Podcast, October 10, 2025: Sam Altman LIVE on Sora, Hollywood, & the Future of Ads | Bill Peebles, Dylan Patel, Elad Gil, Robby Stein, Morgan Housel, Misha Laskin · Oct 10, 2025 · 1:25:00In transcript

Totally. The the reaction to the API has been nuts positive. Like, I I at least the fastest ramping revenue I've ever seen for one…

Sam AltmanspeakerFireside chat at the Large Banks Conference · Jul 22, 2025 · 26:25In transcript

that builds tools with our API to make people like really truly oneclick automate all those things I just talked about. But the creative spirit…

What will Sam Altman say during his CNBC interview? · not listed

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What will Sam Altman say during CNBC: Squawk on the Street? · not listed

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What will Sam Altman say during The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon? · not listed

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What will Sam Altman say on The Tonight Show on December 8? · settled no

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What will Sam Altman say during the TBPN Podcast? · not listed

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What will Sam Altman say during his Fireside chat at the Large Banks Conference? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Dec 8, 2025	API / AGI	Polymarket	No

Questions

How often does Sam Altman say “API / AGI”?: As of Oct 25, 2026, Sam Altman did not say “API / AGI” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Dec 8, 2025.
What is the probability Sam Altman says “API / AGI” next time?: 11%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Sam Altman: ‘API / AGI’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/sam-altman/words/agi-or-api (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=sam-altman&word=agi%20%2F%20api · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=sam-altman&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP