Sam Altman: Episode, Dec 8, 2025
Polymarket What will Sam Altman say on The Tonight Show on December 8?
Markets
16 words · 1 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket / Bet | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Car / Tesla | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ChatGPT 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Creativity / Artist | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deep Fake | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| OpenAI 4+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Silicon Valley / Nerd | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sora 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terminator / Movie | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump / Election | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nvidia / Bubble | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Robot / Robotic | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| API / AGI | No | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Meme | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-sam-altman-say-on-the-tonight-show-on-december-8 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP