The Rachel Maddow Show: Episode, Jul 9, 2026
Kalshi What will Sam Altman say during CNBC: Squawk on the Street?
Markets
15 words · 1 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China / Chinese | Yes | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Data Center | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| GPT-6 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Grid / Energy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| IPO / Public | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nvidia / Jensen | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Productivity | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Quantum | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Security / Cybersecurity | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trillion | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stargate | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Anthropic / Claude | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 31%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMADDOWMENTION-26JUL09 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP