Will Sam Altman say “China / Chinese”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Sam Altman said “China / Chinese” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 9, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jul 9, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 25% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (1 episode, 1 keynote; Jul 22, 2025 – Oct 10, 2025), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 46¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Sam Altman
China / Chinese
- Probability
- 25% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 2 transcripts
- said in 0 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | China / Chinese |  Kalshi | No |
| Jul 9, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Sam Altman say “China / Chinese”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Sam Altman said “China / Chinese” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 9, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jul 9, 2026.
- What is the probability Sam Altman says “China / Chinese” next time?
- 25%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Sam Altman: ‘China / Chinese’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/sam-altman/words/china-or-chinese (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=sam-altman&word=china%20%2F%20chinese · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=sam-altman&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP