Sam Altman: Interview, Sep 29, 2026
Kalshi What will Sam Altman say during his CNBC interview?
Markets
16 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open Source | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Valuation / IPO | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AGI | Yes | 21%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ChatGPT | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Google / Gemini | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Compute | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| IP / Intellectual Property | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Sora | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Astra | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Data Center | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Anthropic / Claude | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon / Grok | No | 21%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Nvidia | No | 20%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 20%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXALTMANMENTION-26SEP29 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP