Donald Trump: Remarks, May 14, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say during China State Banquet?
Markets
18 words · 4 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ancient | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| World War II | Yes | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Confucius / Confucian | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Paper | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hottest | No | 49%n=225 from settlement history | – |
| Farm / Farmer | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Sovereign / Sovereignty | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tiger | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Friendship | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Dynasty | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Forbidden City | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ping-pong / Ping Pong | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Silk Road | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Temple | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Heaven | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nixon | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gun | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | open | – | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-china-state-banquet · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP